Third placed Sunderland boast the only the fifteenth best, or rather ninth worst, defence in the third tier with a somewhat surprising 41 goals going in against the northern side. That’s 21 goals more than table topping Rotherham and only nine fewer than Cheltenham Town, whom the mackems put five past at the Stadium of Light in September (ranking correct as of 04/02/2022)
Sunderland finished January off with a 6-0 defeat away to Bolton, dropping from a top seven defence all the way down to fifteenth, but how have the goals gone in? Read on to find out the frailties in the Black Cat’s defence and how Cheltenham could find their way through to find the net on Tuesday.
Starting things off, and it’s a good sign for Tuesday, Sunderland have conceded 73% of their goals on the road, that’s 30 of the 41 to go in against them. Working out at conceding just over 2.1 goals per game away from home, it will be a cause of confidence for Michael Duff’s side on Tuesday, with only one clean sheet coming in a 4-0 win over Crewe in October.
Of the 41, only four (10%) have come from outside the box as Wycombe Wanderers (home and away), Lincoln City and Bolton Wanderers have found the net from more than 18 yards and three of four coming in the last five games, half of them in away games.
43% of Sunderland’s goals are conceded from the ball being played on the left, whether that be corners, cross field balls, or crosses, the right side of their defence seems to be their clear weakness (as clear of a weakness as they have) with only 31% of goals scored from the attacking team’s right hand side. That leaves 24% of goals coming through the middle of the pitch.
Sunderland have conceded five corners, all from the left. They have also conceded three penalties and three times directly from a counter attack. But what does this mean?
Statistically, Cheltenham Town are likely to find the net on Tuesday and will score at least one. My estimate, or the most likely (or would make the most sense) is that Cheltenham will win the ball on the edge of the robins’ box and play the ball to the left, a quick counter and some good play should see a cut back to Alfie May to slot home. Will this happen? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s what I believe to be most likely.
With this written on the Thursday, bottom placed Doncaster went to the Stadium of Light on the Saturday and scored with a goal coming to the left side, and from a left sided corner, just as predicted.
Alternatively, May could be the one to set up the goal. Sunderland also struggle with corners, especially from the left hand side. A ball in from our current set piece taker May finding the head of Will Boyle or Mattie Pollock and Cheltenham could find the net.
Find the net first, and Cheltenham have stats on their side. Only once all season have Duff’s side scored first and lost, opening the season mostly sees at least one point picked up thanks to a plethora of late goals go in against either Scott Flinders or Owen Evans. The robins may not be looking to pick up three points, but avoiding a defeat like last time out will be seen as a success, even if May does open the scoring and we sit back to defend.
The majority of goals conceded come in the second half for Tuesday’s visitors, with 21 coming after the break compared to 18 before. Eight goals have gone in after the 80 minute mark, a record identical to Cheltenham who have also seen eight goals go in with ten minutes (plus added time) to go, we’re in for late drama perhaps?
Comentarios