In the past, survival in the third tier tends to come after the fifty point mark.
In the 2020/21 season, there was one point in it, Wigan Athletic scraped to safety on forty-eight points at the expense of twenty-first place Rochdale. 2019/20, the infamous covid season, saw the league campaign cut short with thirty-five points after as many games enough to keep AFC Wimbledon in League One.
Looking back two decades to the 2000/01 season, in which fifty-two points was the survival benchmark, you can see that far more often than not it was a half century which kept you up. In just four of the twenty-one seasons was a total lower than fifty enough for safety, with the lowest being thirty five in the covid season and the lowest in a full season being forty-eight in 2020/21 and 2010/11 which had only one point in it.
That means that in seventeen of the past twenty-one seasons, you’ve needed to hit the fifty point mark for safety, seven of those occasions saw teams reach the fabled mark but still get relegated. It is very common for safety to go down to the wire with sixteen of the aforementioned seasons having three or less points between the twentieth and twenty-first placed sides.
The largest gap came in the 2011/12 season in which Wycombe Wanderers finished seven points behind Leyton Orient. The highest number needed was fifty two in 2014/15 and 2000/01, which just goes to show how tight it gets at the bottom of the third tier.
When looking closer to home, you can look at what was needed for Cheltenham Town to confirm safety in their past League One or Second Division appearances. Their last third tier season came in 2008/09 in which the robins finished in twenty-third on thirty-nine points, eleven behind twentieth place Carlisle United on fifty points. 2007/08 saw a nineteenth placed finish with fifty one points, one above the fifty mark which saw Crewe stay up. The season before saw Cheltenham’s highest ever EFL finish with fifty-four points earning seventeenth place, three above the lowest safe tally.
You can see the points totals needed for safety here:
2020/21: 48 points (one point in it)
2019/20: 35 points (covid) 2 points in it
2018/19: 50 on goal difference
2017/18: 51 (one point in it)
2016/17: 50 points (one point in it)
2015/16: 50 points (four points in it)
2014/15: 52 (two points in it)
2013/14: 50 (three points in it)
2012/13: 51 (three points in it)
2011/12: 50 (seven points in it)
2010/11: 48 (one point in it)
2009/10: 50 (goal difference)
2008/09: 50 (one point in it) (Cheltenham on 39 in 23rd)
2007/08: 50 (two points in it) (Cheltenham on 51 in 19th)
2006/07: 51 (four points in it) (Cheltenham on 54 in 17th)
2005/06: 50 (two points in it)
2004/05: 51 (goal difference)
2003/04: 51 (one point in it)
2002/03: 50 (two points in it) (Cheltenham on 48 in 21st)
2001/02: 49 (four points in it)
2000/01: 52 (one point in it)
It’s fair to say that it’s going to be a tough season at times, a disappointing loss to Doncaster Rovers at the weekend kept Duff’s side from reaching the twenty point mark and handed three points to a relegation candidate. With the club currently sitting on eighteen points, it’s likely that another thirty over the next twenty-eight games will be enough, that’s ten wins on top of the five we already have. Throw in some draws and Cheltenham should be okay.
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